National Weather Service
Current
Version
Previous Version:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Area Forecast Discussion
000
fxus61 kbtv 221400
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
900 am est sun nov 22 2009
. synopsis...
high pressure will remain over the north country today on into
monday ... before pushing off the coast. this will allow a couple of
low pressure systems to affect the northeast by midweek ... right
into the upcoming weekend.
&&
. near term /through tonight/...
as of 900 am est sunday ... quick update to this mornings
package ... mainly to adjust fcst towards latest sky cover trends.
reality check this morning that yes ... high pressure with mostly
cloudy skies is often the norm and not the exception this time of
year. examination of vis sat showing widespread low clouds across
much of the area ... which will likely hang tough and only slowly
burn off as low sun angle and weak insolation will do little to mix
out lower levels. compounding the clearing issue is warm
temperatures aloft ... with 12z alb sounding and current acars data
from cyul showing impressive 11f subsidence inversion from 900 - 850
mb. clouds will be tough to erode given a cap of this strength
... though will at least lean on the side of optimism and latest
mos guidance showing partial clearing most areas by the mid to late
afternoon hours today. with given degree of cloud cover ... have also
eased temps back a degree or two from earlier thinking ... mainly in
the 45 - 50 degree range. rest of fcst in good shape and other than
above adjustments ... no other chgs needed attm. enjoy your day.
previous discussion from 405 am est sunday...
another nice day on tap for the entire north country with high
pressure over the northeast. ll cld cover from inversion will break
up as the day progresses ... allowing for skies to go sunny/msunny. fg
around the cwa where breaks in cld cover is expected to burn off w/
sunrise. warming aloft at 850mb will allow for slightly warmer temps
at hir elev than valley locales. this will mainly affect the dacks.
ridge will begin to shift offshore tngt ... but clr and cd conditions
of tap for the cwa. some lgt southerly winds will push into western
zones towards morning as sfc high sets up offshore. cld cover from
sfc low off the se coast may filter into southern vt towards
morning ... but no precip expected.
&&
. short term /monday through tuesday/...
as of 405 am est sunday ... sfc low off the se coast will mv n on
monday ... then shunted out to sea due to blocking ridge over area.
southern portions of vt will see some incr in cld cover from
northern fringe of system ... especially during the aftnoon/evening
hrs. mdls do differ some on extent of push n into new eng/n
ny ... with even the suggestion of wk upper trough on west side of
ridge working into n ny. moisture feed probable to enhance this
feature from e flow of two systems off the coast. thinking this
upper trough and subsequent qpf potential a bit overdone but will
put in sl chance overngt mon and taper off tuesday. an approaching
low from the west will have its leading cld edge work into western
cwa late monday ngt into tues. wk sfc ridge may rebuild over area
in between these two systems mon ngt ... so will keep temps near
guidance which could bring a few --sw/-rw as temps drop ... and any
leftover precip tuesday to fall as rain w/ sfc flow becm more
southerly w/ approach.
&&
. long term /tuesday night through saturday/...
as of 429 am est sunday ... the above mentioned coastal low will be
pulling out of the area with only a slight potential for wrap
around showers in se vt. on wednesday a front begins to approach
from the great lakes ... spreading the potential for rain into
western ny wed ... and into vt wed night. the front lingers over the
north country thursday with the potential for showers through
thanksgiving. precip should remain all rain with sw flow maintaining
above seasonal temps. the forecast gets interesting friday into
saturday ... as upper low moves toward the northeast and guidance
develops a sfc coastal low. placement and timing are not in
sync ... and thus have maintained chance for rain and snow friday.
right now it looks like airmass will remain too warm for snow in
the valleys through friday. but potential for snow increases with
colder air moving in friday night and sat. there are large
discrepancies with the development of the sfc low ... both in depth
of low and position ... so am hesitant to play up impacts since we
are still about 5 - 6 days out and much can change.
&&
. aviation /14z sunday through thursday/...
through 12z monday ... generally mvfr cigs will slowly lift this
morning becoming vfr between 14 - 16z with mtns obscured. exception
is ifr this morning at krut with br ... will become mvfr by 14 - 15z
and vfr after 16z. skies should become mostly clear under high
pressure around 20z. winds will be variable less than 6kt. later
tonight ... around 09z ... return flow off the atlantic will increase
in se vt and se dacks ... aiding in lowering of ceilings to mvfr in
greens and dacks.
outlook 12z monday through thursday...
monday through tuesday night ... mvfr in the am in se vt ... otherwise
vfr ... though increasing clouds.
wednesday through thursday ... vfr wed. diminishing to mvfr in rain
and mountain snow showers wed night as low pressure swings through
the great lakes.
&&
. btv watches/warnings/advisories...
vt ... none.
ny ... none.
&&
$$
synopsis ... jn
near term ... jmg/jn
short term ... jn
long term ... amf
aviation ... amf/mb