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000
agnt40 kwnm 230657
mimatn
marine weather discussion
nws ocean prediction center washington dc
152 am est mon 23 nov 2009
. forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
. weather for north atlantic ocean w of 50w from 30n to 50n.
large high pres conts to build se across the nrn waters...
supporting mod ne flow of 20 to 25 kt ovr most of the offshore
waters tngt ... xcpt except far nw waters 15 to 20 kt. models cont
to fcst low pres to dvlp offshore and move to e of the va capes
by late aftn ... then cont to deepen and move low ne tngt thru tue.
gfs has been fairly consistent with this fcst ... only latest runs
are deeper. ll vort fields indct gfs is having minor convective
feedback prblms. the gfsp is smlr to the op gfs ... though just a
bit more tepid on deepening the low. the ecmwf/ukmet/cdn are
smlr ... with all the models arriving at a fcst of the sfc low
over ern georges bank at 00z wed. oddly ... the gfs ensmbl mean is
se of all global models. the gfs is 3 to 4 mbs deeper than the
other models. the nam ... never catches on and takes a very weak
low and moves it eastward ... then northward and is discarded.
will cont with e gales dvlpng at 00z tngt s of new england
waters ... then across the rmndr of the nrtrn waters tngt. xpct
gales to end tue and tue ngt. will stay with minimal gales...
instead the higher 40 ro 45 kt fcst by the overdone gfs.
next fcst prblm is late thu and fri. models cont to have prblms
in timing of dvlpng cut off upr low ovr the ohio vlly late
thu... then bringing large upr low eastward. the gfs and ecmwf
are the most alike while the cdn and esp the ukmet conts to be
too progressive. on the sfc ... a sig cyclone is likely to affect
the offshore waters fri. details are dffclt at this point with
confidence lacking. wl fcst a mix of the new gfs and ecmwf...
leaning more twds the latter. the gfs ensmbl members are
scattered about and offer little ... except to confirm that
confidence should be low. best bet for gales attm is for late
fri ... early sat in unstable caa in wake of sfc low off the mid
atlc coast. but owing to low confidence ... wl kp winds checked at
30 kt maximum.
seas ... currently ... obsrvtns compared with the w atlc wave watch
model are running 2 to 3 ft above the models off the nc and sc
coast. seas here shld gradu subside as winds veer to s`rly and
dmnsh today. and over balt cnyn ... seas are 1 to 2 ft abv gdnc...
and do not see much of a reason to change. elsewhere ... wl fllw
wave watch guidance ... xcpt low seas 1 or 2 ft in assn with
slgtly overfcst low. also ... late fri ... wl trim back seas 20 to
25 pct ovr the outer offshore waters.
extratropical storm surge ... fcst lvls reach just over 1 ft along
the nj coast 12z tue. since gfs winds are overdone ... these hgts
may be a lttl too high.
. warnings/forecast confidence ... warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. any changes will be coordinated through awips
12 planet chat or by telephone.
. nt1 new england waters...
. gulf of maine ... gale tngt into tue ... low confdc. gale fri ... low
confdc.
. georges bank ... gale tngt into tue ... low to mod confdc.
. s of new england ... gale tngt into tue ... low to mod cofdc.
. nt2 mid atlc waters...
. hudson to balt cnyn ... none.
. balt cnyn to hague line ... gale today into tngt e part ... low to
mod confdc. gale fri e aprt ... low confdc.
. balt cnyn to hatteras cnyn ... none.
. hatteras cnyn to cape fear ... none.
. cape fear to 31n ... none.
. forecaster prosise. ocean forecast branch.