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000
agpn40 kwnm 100154
mimpac
marine weather discussion for n pacific ocean
nws ocean prediction center washington dc
542 pm pst tue 9 feb 2010
. forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
. weather for the north pacific n of 30n and e of 150w.
attm i dont plan on making many significant changes to the up
coming pkg ... although may drop mention of gales across srn ca
waters ... not much date to indicate gales are occuring there.
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previous
the goes vis imgry indc an area of low pres just e of the c ca
wtrs ... and a stg low pres sys in the gulfak with an assoc cdfnt
aprchg the ofshr wtrs attm. the consevatively biased ascat fm
06z indc wnds to 30 kt in the quad ovr the c ca wtrs ... and the
12z gfs wnds indc gales ovr the c ca ofshr wtrs right now. the
gfs has been consistently indcg gales ovr pz5 for the past few
runs ... and the 12z nam/candn and the typically conservative 12z
ukmet all indc gale as well. the 12z ecmwf indc abt 30 kt as
well ... so confdc with gales is mdt to high attm. the prev fcst
went as high as 30 kt ... so adjust the wnds higher and add the
gales ovr the c and srn ca wtrs attm. also ... the gfs has
consistently been indcg gales ovr pz5 in the channeling flow ahd
of the aprchg cdfnt ... and the 12 nam/candn indc the same. the
prev fcst went as high as 30 kt in the wa wtrs ... so wl adjust
higher and add the wrng to the next fcst.
the 12z gfs is in gud agrmt with the 12z ukmet thrut the fcst
pd ... and indc an active pttn ovr the ofshr wtrs. the mdls indc
sevl stg cdfnts movg thru the rgn ovr the next five days ... with
wnds in the gale frc rng. the 12z gfs has trended stgr with the
wnds on thu thru sat ... indcg gales ovr pz5 ahd of a cpl of
aprchg cdfnt with a few instances with storm frc barbs. the rest
of the guid is wkr ... particularly with a low just nw of the
waters late fri into sat. confdc with the storm is vry low
attm ... so wl hold off for now. otrw the gales ahd of the cdfnts
seem rsnbl ... and wrngs were in place in the prev fcst ... so xpct
no change fm the prev fcst with the wrngs in the short term.
in the med rng ... the 12z gds indc another stg low and cdfnt wl
aprch pz5 late sun ... and indc glaes once again ovr the ofshr
wtrs. the pgfs has been consistent with this scenario ... but only
the 12z ukmet is close to the gfs soln. the 12z candn/ecmwf indc
a track nw of the gfs soln ... and keep the stgr wnds nw of the
area by the end of the fcst pd. attm there is a sig amt of
uncertainty with the track of the low ... and the location of the
stgst wnds ... so confdc with the gales is fairly low attm ... so
cap the wnds at 30 kt as a compromise. otrw wl stay nr the 12z
gfs for the rmndr of the fcst.
seas ... the 12z wavewatch iii mdl is init within a ft or so of
the crnt data. the mdl looks a tad high thu in conjunction with
the ovrdone gfs wnds ... and again fri into sat ovr pz5 with the
gfs indcg 50 kt. otrw the guid seems rsnbl.
extratropical storm surge guidance ... the 12z etss mdl indc
values up to 1 ft into late fri ... which looks rsnbl with the
genl srly flow ahd of the aprchg cdfnts. otrw the mdl indc surge
values less than . 5 ft alng the ca coast.
. warnings/forecast confidence ... warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. any changes will be coordinated through awips
12 planet chat or by telephone.
. pz5 washington/oregon waters...
. cape flattery to cape lookout ... gale tngt into sat ... mdt to hi
confdc.
. cape lookout to point st george ... gale wed into sat ... mdt to hi
confdc.
. pz6 california waters...
. pt st george to pt arena ... gale thu into sat ... low confdc.
. pt arena to pt conception ... gale tngt ... mdt to hi confdc ... then
thu ... low confdc.
. pt conception to guadalupe island ... gale tngt ... mdt confdc.
. forecaster shaw. ocean forecast branch.