000
FZPN03 KNHC 152111
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.0N 104.5W 1000 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.2N 104.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.2N 106.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.7N 107.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.8N 108.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.5N 108.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 30N NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S100W TO 03N110W TO 12N98W TO 15N103W TO
10N116W TO 00N123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S103W TO 01N110W TO
03.4S116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. WITHIN
AREA BOUNDED BY 12N95W TO 17N104W TO 08N118W TO 08N105W TO
12N95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 118W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.COLD FRONT JUST W OF AREA. NW OF LINE FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W
SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W. N OF 27N E
OF FRONT TO 137W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. W OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N138W TO
27N138W TO 25N140W. NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 25N135W TO
22N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT.
.48 GOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1800 UTC MON OCT 15...

.TROPICAL STORM TARA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90
NM NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC TO NEAR 16N100W TO 13N110W TO
10N120W TO 11N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 93W AND 105W, AND WITHIN 120 NM BETWEEN 105W AND 114W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN
127W AND 136W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.