000
AGNT40 KWNM 240855
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
455 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THR
FORECAST PERIOD REGARDING THE TRACK AND POSITIONING OF FORECAST
LOWS THAT WILL BE EFFECTING OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST GALES ARE OCCURING AS EVIDENCE BY THE MOST RECENT
ASCAT PASS. AS THE LOW INTENSIIFIES E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THE
GALE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE IN THE NW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NE PORTION OF NT2 WATERS. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION THERE WILL BE BRIEF RESPIT AS A RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS INAVE OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LOW FORMING
ON THE FRONT WITH PRETTY MUCH THE SAME TRACK...THEY DIFFER ON THE
INTENSITY. THE UKMET/ECMWF FALL INTO THE STRONGER GROUP...WHILE
THE GFS/CMC WERE WEAKER. I DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRI AND THIS PRODUCED SOME GALE
CONDITIONS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. I ALSO BLEND THE WW3 AND ECMWF WAVE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
I POPULATED THE GRIDS USING THE 30M GFS WINDS WITH AN 10 PERCENT
INCREASE ON FAR NE PORTION OF NT2 ZONES.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...00Z ESTOFS INDICATING A
NEGATIVE SURGE MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z ETSS WITH VALUES
-1.5 TO -2 FT FROM DELAWARE BAY TO LONG ISLAND SOUND THU AND THU
NGT. WHEREAS 12Z ETSS IS IN 0 TO -0.5 RANGE. BASED ON PREVIOUS
CASES THE ESTOFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH NEGATIVE SURGE...WITH
ETSS OR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE TWO SEEMING MORE REASONABLE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
GALE EARLY TODAY.
STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
GALE EARLY TODAY.
STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.