000
AGNT40 KWNM 241922
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

CURRENT SAT PIX AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOW CENTER VCNTY OF CAPE COD.
AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 13Z SHOWS SEAS TO 6.5 FT ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WATERS AND FAR ERN MID ATLANTIC WATERS. ASCAT PASS FROM
15Z IDICATES MAINLY 5-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...WITH MAX WINDS TO 25 KT IN SW FLOW OVR ERN PTNS OF MID
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS NE ACROSS THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A NRN
STREAM LOW MOVING SE FROM QUEBEC. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ONCE THE STYSTEM EXITS E OF AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MOVING S ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 5. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ONCE IT REACHES HATTERAS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE A LOW CENTER FCST TO
AFFECT THE SRN WATERS ON DAYS 4-7. THE GFS IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
THE LOW INLAND...AND FCST IT TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS OFF THE
GEORGIA CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ATTM WILL GO THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND ONLY PACE A TROF ALONG THE SE CST ON DAYS 4
AND 5...THIS AGREES WELL WITH WPC MEDIUM RANGE.

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
3...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT THEREAFTER...MAINLY WITH THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF A LOW CENTER NEAR THE SE AND NRN FL CST.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLN ARE GENERALLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS SOLN.
THE GFS IS ALSO FURTHER N THAN ANY OF THE MODELS INDICATES. WILL
POP THE WIND GRIDS USING THE 12Z GFS THROUGH 1Z THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITION TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BOOST WINDS BY 10 PERCENT WHERE ECMWF IS USED.

SEAS...BOTH THE WNA AND WAM INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE SIMILAR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS WHERE THE WNA IS FCSTING HIGHER SEAS IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER LOW FCSTD. WILL POP WAVE GRIDS USING
THE WNA THROUGH 12Z THU...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE TWO MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.