000
AGNT40 KWNM 020700
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TNGT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DFFRNCS. SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0130Z
SHOWED GFS 10M WINDS REPRESENTATIVE AND WILL USE GFS 10M WINDS
THROUGH THE FCST.

WEAK SFC TROF EXTENDING FM GEORGES BANK SW TO JUST OFF THE THE VA
CAPES WILL DIPST TDY...ALLOWING SW FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT TO RETURN
TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS JUST A SMIDGE FASTER THEN
OTHR MODELS IN TAKING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST N OF WALLOPS ISLAND
BY 12Z WED. WINDS WL REMAIN AT 20 KT MAX. BY 12Z THU...FRONT TO
BCM STRNY W TO E NR 36 N...THEN DRIFT S THU AND THU NGT WHILE
WASHING OUT. THE FRONT WILL PLAY HAVOK WITH THE LCL WIND DRCTN...BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT...10 KT OR LESS. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
WIL FLOAT OFF TO THE E FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING NEXT COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SLOWLY SE OFF THE COAST SAT. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AGREE ON SW
WINDS INCRSNG TO 25 KT AHD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. BY 12Z SUN...
THE GFS TAKES FRONT FM SABLE ISLAND SW TO THE VA CAPES. THIS IS
ABOUT 60 TO 90 NM FTHR SE THAN UKMET/GEM/ECMWF SO WL USE THE ECMWF
FM 00Z SUN ON.

.SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III MODELS INITLD WELL WITH
OBSRVD SEAS WITHIN A FT OF THE WAVE MODEL. THE DFFRNC BTWN THE
ECMWF WAM AND THE WAVEWATCH IS LESS THAN ONE FOOT...SO WILL STAY
WITH THE WAVEWATCH MODEL.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.