000
AGNT40 KWNM 271911
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
311 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A DVLPG LOW WILL PASS NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO
SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATE SAT AND SAT
NITE. A TROF WILL DVLP OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE...THEN PASS
SE OF THE NT2 WTRS LATE SUN INTO SUN NITE. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL
BUILD OFSHR SUN...THEN PASS SE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS SUN NITE INTO
EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND SE ACROSS THE OFSHR
WTRS MON INTO EARLY TUE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL PASS E OVER THE AREA
TUE INTO TUE NITE. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE SE TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST TUE NITE...PASS E ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WED...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NE WED NITE. A THIRD RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR LATE
WED AND WED NITE.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU MON NITE...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 30M
SOLN WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR TONITE THRU SAT
NITE...FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z GFS 10M FOR SUN THRU MON NITE. 12Z GEM
LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...SINCE IT TAKES
THE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE S AS IT CROSSES THE NT2 WTRS. THERE
ARE SOME MORE MINOR TRAJECTORY AND TIMING DIFFS BTWN THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE LOW FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...SO
WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS 10M FOR THIS PRD AS
IT HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS INITIALIZED
WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 12Z MWW3 MDL LOOKS GOOD THRU MON
NITE...SO IT WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEN WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE
GRIDS FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...TO MATCH UP WITH THE PREFERRED
ATMOS MDLS FOR THIS PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS FCSTG A NEG SURGE
OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT ALONG THE SE COAST TONITE...THEN DIMINISHING SAT.
ESTOFS HAS ANOTHER NEG SURGE UP TO 1.0 FT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
MON. THE ETSS HAS CORRESPONDING NEG SURGE VALUES OF 1.0 FT OR
LESS.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
GALE TODAY.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.