000
AGNT40 KWNM 200128
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

ATTM I DONT PLAN ON MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THE UPCOMING PKG. IT
APPEARS AS GALES HAVE BEGIN VCNTY OF HATTERAS WITH SEAS NR 12 FT
AT 00Z.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT
THAT THE CLOSED UPR LOW NOW NR THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER WL
DRIFT OFSHR TONITE THEN TRACK SLOWLY ENE ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS
SUN INTO EARLY MON WHILE WKNG INTO AN OPEN WAVE. AT THE SFC THE
12Z MDLS ALSO GNRLY AGREE THAT AN ASCD NRLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SFC LOW WL FOLLOW AND SMLR FCST TRACK ENE ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS
TONITE INTO EARLY MON. THOUGH THE MLDS DIFFER SMWHT IN THEIR
SPECIFIC FCST TRACKS...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NT1 WTRS
LATE SUN/SUN NITE THEY ALL FCST A SMLRLY STRONG ENELY GRADIENT
ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS N OF THE LOW AND ITS ASCD FRONTS.
FOR THIS GRADIENT...BEARING IN MIND THAT IT WL MAINLY RUNNING
AGAINST THE GULF STREAM...PLAN ON USING THE SMWHAT STRONGER 12Z
GFS 30 M BL WINDS WITH SM MINOR MODIFICATIONS PER THE 12Z
UKMET/ECMWF. THEREFORE DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY MAJOR TIMING
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD GALE WRNGS (WL
CONT TO FCST THE GALES (MAX WINDS UP TO 35 OR 40 KT) TO END SUN
NITE). SO OVERALL NO MAJOR SHORT TERM CHNGS ARE PLANNED FOR THE
NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z MDLS GRNLY AGREE THAT THE MOST SIG
WEATHER FEATURE WL BE A NRN STREAM DVLPG SFC LOW PASSING ACRS
THE NT1 WTRS TUE NITE INTO WED WHILE PULLING A MODERATELY STRONG
COLD FRONT OFSHR. THO THE 12Z MDLS AGAIN DIFFER IN THEIR EXACT
FCST TRACKS OF THIS SYSTEM...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
FROPA THEY ALL FCST A MOD STRONG NNWLY GRADIENT TO DVLP WED INTO
THU. BY LATE THU/THU NITE...BY FCSTG LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GEM/UKMET
IN FCSTG THE ANY ASCD NNWLY GALES TO END. SINCE THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS AND TO BE MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...PLAN ON USING A BLENDED 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THU. PER A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE
12Z MDLS WL FCST LOW CONFIDENCE GALES TO DVLP ACRS THE ERN NT1 AND
NE NT2 WTRS WED NITE INTO THU.SO SINCE THE 12Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS
THE 12Z GFS AND TO BE MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...PLAN ON USING A BLENDED 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THU.

SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED RSNBLY WELL. THO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COUNTERFLOW AGAINST THE GULF STREAM IN THE SHORT
TERM...AS WAS DONE PREVLY...WL LKLY BLEND ITS FCST SEAS ACRS THE
SRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WITH THE HIGHER SEAS FCST BY THE 12Z ECMWF
WAM MDL. SINCE A BLENDED 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WL THEN BE USED
IN THE LONG RANGE WL LKLY CONT TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE NELY GRADIENT ALONG
THE SE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE 12Z ESTOFS FCSTS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSITIVE SURGE THAN THE 12Z ETSS...BUT NOT SIGLY
SO.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
GALE POSSIBLE THU.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW/VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.