000
AGNT40 KWNM 220729
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
229 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...LATEST ASCAT PASS AT 0200Z SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER
THE NT1 AND NE NT2 WTRS IN NW FLOW. A STG HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE
E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS TODAY THRU SUN...THEN PASS E OF THE AREA SUN
NITE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS SUN NITE INTO
EARLY MON...THEN PASS NE ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS LATER MON. A STG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFSHR MON NITE...THEN PASS E AND SE OVER THE WTRS
TUE AND TUE NITE. A DVLPG LOW IS EXPCTD TO FORM ALG THE FRONT
NEAR BLAKE RIDGE TUE NITE...THEN MOVE NE OVER THE NT2 AREA WED
AND WED NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT INTO TUE
NITE...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS 30M WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE
WIND GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MDLS ARE IN POOR AGREEMNT FOR
WED AND WED NITE CONCERNING TIMING/STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THE
DVLPG LOW...AND IN ADDITION THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM/UKMET SOLNS SHOW
POOR CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z RUN. 00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MDL TO SHOW
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR WED AND WED NITE...SO THE GFS 10M
WILL BE USED FOR THIS PRD.

.SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL OVER
THE OFSHR WTRS...AND IT WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST PRD BECAUSE THE 00Z GFS IS BEING USED FOR THE WIND
GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ESTOFS AND ETSS MDLS INDICATE
A NEG SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT ALNG THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS
SAT NITE INTO SUN...FOLLOWED BY THE ESTOF MDL SHOWING A POS SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FT FROM LONG ISLAND NWD MON INTO MON NITE.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
GALE TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
GALE TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
GALE TONIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
GALE POSSIBLE MON.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
GALE POSSIBLE MON.
GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE SUN.
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE WED.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.