000
AGNT40 KWNM 310651
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
251 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NOTE: THE 00Z ECMWF IS COMING IN SLOWLY (ONLY IN THRU SUN NITE SO
FAR) AND ITS WAM WAVE MDL IS COMING IN EVEN SLOWER.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR UPR LVL FCSTS WITH AN UPR L/W TROF DIGGING INTO THE ERN
CONUS TODAY INTO SAT WHICH WL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT FOR A
FRONTAL LOW NOW OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NNE ACRS THE CNTRL/NERN NT2 WTRS LATE TODAY...THEN
CROSSING THE SE NT2 WTRS LATE SAT/SAT NITE WHL DSIPTG. THEN IN
RESPONSE TO AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR LOW ROTATING THRU THE BASE
OF THE L/W TROF LATE SAT...THEN PASSING NE ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS SAT
NITE/SUN THE 00Z MDLS TO VARYING DEGREES FCST A SECOND STRONGER
DVLPG SFC LOW TO MOV OFSHR NR HAT CNYN LATE SAT...RACE NE ACRS THE
OFSHR WTRS SAT NITE/EARLY SUN...THEN CONT NE OF THE NT1 WTRS LATE
SUN/SUN NITE. IN REGARDS TO THE FCST TRACKS OF THESE SFC
LOWS...THE PATTERN GETS COMPLICATED ESPECLY SAT NITE WHEN THE WAVE
LENGTH BTWN THE TWO SFC LOWS SHORTENS. OVERALL THE 00Z GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS THE 00Z GFS FCST TRACKS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE 00Z GFS IS
LKLY DSIPTG THE LEAD SFC LOW A LTL TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BCMS A LTL
TOO FAST WITH THE SECOND LOW SAT NITE...BUT NOT SIGLY SO.
THEREFORE BLV A COMPROMISE BTWN THE RMRKBLY SMLR 00Z GFS/ECMWF
FCST TRACKS FOR THESE SFC LOWS LOOKS BEST. IN REGARDS TO THE FCST
GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THESE SFC LOWS OVERALL THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
FCST SMLR GRADIENTS. THEREFORE PLAN ON POPULATING OUR SHORT TERM
WIND GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY/TONITE...THEN
TO BETTER REPRESENT THE WINDS THAT WL DVLP IN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITIES THAT WL DVLP IN THE WAKE
OF THESE LOWS WL TRANSITION TO THE MR ROBUST 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS
FOR SAT THRU SUN...BUT WITH SM SIG EDITS ESPECLY OVER THE NT1 WTRS
IN DEFERENCE TO THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF. SO THE MAJOR IMPACT OF USING
THESE FCST WINDS WL BE TO EXPAND THE PREVLY FCSTD AREA OF STORM
WRNGS ASCD WITH THE SECOND SFC LOW.

IN THE LONG RANGE...BY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE STRONG SFC LOW IS
FCST BY ALL OF THE 00Z MDLS TO PASS OFF TO THE NE...IT WL JUST BE
A MATTER OF HOW FAST TO FCST CONDS TO DMNSH. THEN BY LATE TUE/TUE
NITE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FCST TO APRCH FM THE NW THE 00Z
GLOBAL MDLS TO SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES FCST A STRENGTHENING WSWLY
GRADIENT TO DVLP ACRS THE NRN WTRS. THEREFORE PLAN ON CONTG TO
POPULATE WITH THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS THRU MON NITE...THEN WL
TRANSITION TO THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TUE/TUE NITE.

.SEAS...OVERALL THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III LOOKS RSNBL THRU TUE NITE.
BUT ONCE THE 00Z ECMWF WAM COMES IN MAY BLEND IT WITH THE 00Z
WAVEWATCH III.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
SECOND SFC LOW SAT/SAT NITE PREFER THE HIGHER NEGATIVE SURGE FCST
BY THE 00Z ESTOFS VS THE 00Z ETSS MDL. FURTHER N THE 00Z ESTOFS
AND 00Z ETSS MDLS FCST SMLR POSITIVE SURGES DVLPG ALONG THE NRN
MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLD COASTS SAT INTO SUN WHICH LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
GALE SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
STORM SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
STORM SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
STORM SAT NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
STORM SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE SAT.
STORM SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
GALE SAT.
STORM SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE SAT.
STORM SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
GALE SAT.
STORM SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.