000
AGNT40 KWNM 270651
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
251 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS FCST A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO CONT. THE MDLS AGREE THAT THE MOST SIG FEATURE WL BCM
A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY THRU TUE NITE
CAUSING A GNRLY WEAK SLY GRADIENT TO DVLP THRUT ALL OF THE
CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. WITH THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL FCSTG VERY SMLR
GRADIENTS AND ASCD BL WINDS...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND
GRIDS WITH THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY THRU
TUE NITE. BEARING IN MIND THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS SLY
GRADIENT WL LKLY CREATE STRONG ENUF LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT WL
INHIBIT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING ACRS THE COLDER NRN WTRS N OF THE
GULF STREAM...AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREV FCST PACKAGE WL CONT TO CAP
THE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS N OF THE
STREAM (THO WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER GUSTS THE ELEVATED
NEW ENGLD CSTL C-MAN STATIONS). SO AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE MAKING
ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF HV CONVERGED TWDS A
VERY SMLR FCST TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO APRCH THE NEW ENGLD
AND NRN MID ATLC COASTS WED...THEN PUSH EVER SO SLOWLY SE ACRS THE
NT1 AND NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED INTO THU. THE 00Z GLOBAL GEM LOOKS
TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS FROPA. THEN THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT THAT THE FRONT WL BCM QSTNRY SW-NE ACRS THE
CNTRL/NRN NT2 WTRS THU NIGHT WITH PRHPS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT (MAINLY PER THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM)...THEN RETURN NWD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT FRI/FRI
NITE. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THEIR ASCD BL WIND FCSTS BEING
MINIMAL...WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR
WED THRU THU NITE. THEN LATE FRI/FRI NITE THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS DVLP
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG TO...OR JUST
OFF...THE SRN NEW ENGLD AND NRN MID ATLC COASTS. WITH THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN INDICATING THAT THE 00Z GFS MAY BE TOO FAST...WL FAVOR THE
LESS PROGRESSIVE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS COLD FROPA.
THEREFORE WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS
ON FRI/FRI NITE. SO OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAKING MINIMAL LONG RANGE
CHNGS IN THE NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

SEAS...THE SLIGHTLY LOWER 00Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED
BETTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WAM. WITH THIS IN MIND AND SINCE THE
00Z GFS SOLUTION WL BE FAVORED...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS
WITH THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR TODAY THRU THU NITE. THEN SINCE THE
12Z ECMWF WL BCM FAVORED...WL TRANSITION TO THE 00Z ECMWF WAM FCST
SEAS FOR FRI/FRI NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.