000
AGXX40 KNHC 311853
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING S THROUGH BASIN ATTM AND
EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF NAPLES TO SW GULF NEAR 22.5N96W. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S AND SE OF BASIN BY EARLY SAT. MAJOR FOCUS
ON NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG COLD FRONT...MOVING INTO NRN
GULF TONIGHT. COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE GULF YET THIS YEAR COMBINED
WITH STILL WARM SST`S S OF THE N GULF SHELF WATERS WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT MIXING...AND 1000 TO 925 MB WINDS LIKELY TO YIELD
BETTER INDICATION OF 10M WINDS N AND NE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SAT.
OFFSHORE ZONES ONLY YIELDING 30 KT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE ZONES
FOR TONIGHT...BUT HAVE INCORPORATED NE WFO`S WINDS FOR FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS AND INCLUDED IN BOTH OFF`S AND HSF. GALES TO START FROM
MOBILE BAY TO 85W AT 06Z TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EWD INTO BIG BEND
REGION AT 12Z. WW3 LIKELY A LITTLE LOW AND SLOW ON WAVE GROWTH AND
HAVE BLENDED NWPS...YIELDING 8-11 ACROSS NE OFF ZONE. ELSEWHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN
GULF...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS THROUGH
MON. FOR TUE...THE ECMWF AND GFS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH
INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 70W...WITH GFS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGHING
AND LESS WIND MOVING THROUGH STRAITS AND SE GULF. ATTM THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE TO E FLOW THROUGH STRAITS MID WEEK AND
WAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO AND HAVE BLENDED GFS-ECMWF 60-40 ON
TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A TROPICAL WAVE S OF JAMAICA IS MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS SW
CARIBBEAN AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN BROAD MONSOONAL
CIRCULATION AND INTERACTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NW
CARIB BY AROUND 72 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS...AS ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NE CENTRAL ATLC AND
RIDGES TO NEAR BERMUDA. SEAS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE
IN CARIB CURRENTLY...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
AND REACH NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NW OF JAMAICA BY 48 HOURS
AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE IDENTITY...AS NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT NIGHT...REACHES CENTRAL CUBA TO
N GULF OF HONDURAS SUN MORNING THEN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE COAST
OF HONDURAS MON MORNING. 1030+ HIGH BEHIND FRONT ACROSS SE U.S.
WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NELY FLOW BEHIND FRONT AND
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
NOCTURNAL MAX IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO REACH
25-30 KT AND 10 FT MON EVENING THROUGH NIGHT. MODEST DIFFERENCES
IN ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGHING
ALONG 70W TUE-WED YIELD SLIGHTLY DIFFERING WINDS ACROSS NW AND W
CARIB...AND HAVE GONE WITH MEAN FOR TIME BEING. BROAD LOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY MODELS AND MOVE WNW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND QUICKLY
DIMINISH PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WED-FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATTM...WHILE A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM NEAR
28N72W AND N OF PUERTO RICO/VI NEAR 24N65W. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE SE AND THROUGH NW BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO S CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING THEN TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON MORNING AS IT
WASHES OUT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES
AND GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT SUN NIGHT TO MON MORNING.
STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING ACROSS STILL WARM ATLC WATERS
W OF 66W SHOULD ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND HAVE BLENDED IN 925 MB WINDS
TO REFLECT THIS...AND MATCHING REASONABLY WELL WITH SIMILAR
PROCESS BY OPC. W TO NW GALES EXPECTED NW WATERS BY 12Z SAT
SHIFTING ESE AND INTO FAR NW CORNER OF AMZ115 SAT NIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING OUT TO NE SUN 12-15Z. ASSOCIATED SWELL NOT QUITE AS LARGE
AS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF 40 KT WINDS
BEHIND FRONT IS GENERATING SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT PER LATEST NWPS
RUN. W TO SW GALES TO 35 KT EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND
ACTUALLY BETWEEN FRONTS THROUGH 48 HRS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN. NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT MAY EVOLVE FROM INVERTED TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ALONG ABOUT 70W TUE-WED AND RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT TO
THE W AND NW. SEE ABOVE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
GALE WARNING SAT.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
GALE WARNING SAT.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.