000
AGXX40 KNHC 020814
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF LINGERS TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CNVTN EARLIER TONIGHT DIMINISHING. TROUGH LOOKS
TO BE DRIFTING WWD AND WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT AT SFC NEXT 24 HRS.
TPW CLEARLY SHOWS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND LLVL FEATURE MAY LINGER
FOR A FEW DAYS TO PRODUCE SOME CNVTN THERE. WEAK 1016 MB HIGH
SUGGESTED BY OBS ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF...WHILE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS TEXAS COAST HAS SHIFTED SE AND INTO SE TX AND SW
LA COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOT FORECAST TO MAKE MUCH MORE SE PROGRESS
BEFORE STALLING TODAY THEN BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NW
SUN. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR 15-20 KT WINDS OCCURRING
WITH TYPICAL YUCATAN EVENING THERMAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY ALONG
UPPER MEXICAN COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TODAY...AND THEN FOR
TUE AND BEYOND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK FROM ATLC ACROSS FL AND INTO
GULF ALONG 26N TUE-WED AS BERTHA RECURVES AND LIFTS OUT OF
REGION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET CONSENSUS

UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON BERTHA IN THE SHORT TERM...
ALTHOUGH IS NOT AVAILABLE ATTM FOR GFE. DUE TO FAST MOTION OF
BERTHA PAST FEW DAYS...WAVE GROWTH IS BEYOND WHAT WOULD BE
TYPICALLY EXPECTED FOR A SMALL SYSTEM...AND GLOBAL MODELS NOT
TERRIBLY OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH SLOW. BUOY 41009 LOCATED ON A SHOAL
BETWEEN ST LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE JUMPED TO 12 FT AT 23Z AS BERTHA
WAS PASSING WELL N...SUGGESTING A BROAD AND TRAILING WAVE FIELD
GENERATED FROM TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO. BUOY NOW HOLDING AT 9
FT...WHILE 42060 HOLDING AT 11 FT PAST FEW HOURS AND ABOUT 60 NM
TO THE NE OF BERTHA AT 06Z. SE SWELL YIELDING SEAS 8-12 FT
NOW HITTING LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVING THROUGH PASSAGES AND INTO
NE CARIB...BUT OTHERWISE...WAVE GROWTH WITH BERTHA WILL HAVE TO
BEGIN ANEW...AND 12 F SEAS CONFIGURATION LIKELY TO CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY NEXT 6-12 HOURS. BERTHA TO CONTINUE TO RACE NW
TOWARDS S MONA PASSAGE AND EXPECTED TO PASS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONA
ISLAND AND SW COAST OF P.R. AROUND 18Z TODAY...HOPEFULLY BRINGING
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO P.R. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT
INSIDE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND HIT E AND SE COASTS OF
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT S AND SE COAST
OF P.R. CONDITIONS TO THEN IMPROVE ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUN...BUT NOT CLEAN UP COMPLETELY AS PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN...WITH GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS YIELDING BROAD ZONE OF
20 KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT...AND SEAS 7-8 FT MOVING
ACROSS REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF NE CARIB. THIS WILL
LIGHT UP E CARIB SUN EVENING THROUGH MON AND THEN W HALF OF CARIB
TO COAST OF NICARAGUA MON-TUE...WITH COLOMBIAN NOCTURNAL MAX
REACHING 30 KT EACH OF THESE NIGHTS. RIDGING TO BUILD FROM CENTRAL
ATLC INTO S FL AND GULF OF MEXICO BY MID WEAK AND REFOCUS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET CONSENSUS

TUTT LOW ACROSS AREA ALONG 72W SHIFTING SLOWLY W AND CONTINUES TO
CREATE LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 70W AND BAHAMAS...AND
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS MOISTURE SHIFTS NW AND
TOWARD NW PORTIONS OF AREA. BERTHA TO EMERGE OFF N COAST OF DOM
REP TONIGHT AND MOVE NW ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT THEN
RECURVE ACROSS EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TURNING N MON THEN NNE AND
EXITING AREA EARLY TUE. RIDGING WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL ATLC S OF
EXITING BERTHA AND IN TANDEM WITH PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
INTO E CARIB TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES THROUGH SOUTHERN CORRIDOR AND
ENTRANCE TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...REACHING 20-25 KT LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING ALONG N COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA MON-TUE.
ASSOCIATED WAVE FIELD ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE 6-7
FT ACROSS SE WATERS WITH POSSIBLE MAX TO 8 TUE-WED.

LIMITED SWELL ENERGY EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH BAHAMAS AND GET
ACROSS THE BANKS AND TO S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...ALSO AIDED BY FAST
MOTION AND TRAJECTORY MOVING AWAY FROM THIS AREA...AND THUS ATTMLIMITED
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF BAHAMAS FROM BERTHA PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO
SHIFT RAPIDLY N AND NW AND ACROSS N PORTIONS OF AREA THROUGH TUE
BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.