000
AGXX40 KNHC 240639
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW
WATERS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE
6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS...4-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN AND MOVE WESTWARD BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. A LOCALLY TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND
STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 PLENITUDE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...7-9 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND
6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS SUPPORTING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. AFTERWARDS...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE SW N ATLC WATERS WHICH WILL
LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE TRADEWIND FLOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N65W TO NEAR 27N79W. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS
ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS N OF 30 AND W OF THE
FRONT...3-4 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP E OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 FT OVER THE NE WATERS AS THE
TROUGH REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.