000
AGXX40 KNHC 300835
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING NEARLY W TO E ACROSS BASIN FROM 1025 MB
HIGH OFFSHORE OF CRP TO 1023 MB HIGH IN SW ATLC NEAR 29N75W. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF RIDGE WHILE MODERATE NE TO E
FLOW IS TO THE S...WITH WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS PER
RECENT ASCAT PASSES. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WITHIN AND N OF RIDGE AND
3-4 FT GENERALLY S OF RIDGE EXCEPT TO 5 FT IN STRAITS.

NEXT FRONT NOW ENTERING TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND ALREADY BEGINNING
TO SQUASH RIDGE. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SSE AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT ALONG 25-26N FROM S FL WWD TO NEAR BRO...WITH ATLC
PORTION OF FRONT CONTINUING SE...WHILE W PORTION BEGINS TO LIFT N
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS N PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT TODAY THEN VEER SE
AND PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48-60 HRS.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN NIGHT INTRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WITH SEAS 4-7FT
BUILDING QUICKLY TO 6-9 FT. LATEST GFS HAS SLOWED ENTRANCE OF
FRONT INTO GULF AND BACKED OFF ON WINDS...NOW ONLY SHOWING 25
KT...WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW BROAD AREA NEAR 30 KT THROUGH MON
EVENING. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS W
AND SW COASTAL SECTIONS AND ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW TO SPILL DOWN
MEXICAN COAST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NLY GALES THERE MON EVENING.
AGAIN LATEST GFS LEAST AGGRESSIVE OF MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO.
WEAK LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG SW TAIL OF FRONT AND LIFT
N INTO NW GULF TUE THEN DRIFT NE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. PRES
GRADIENT NE THROUGH NW OF LOW AND N OF LIFTING FRONT MAY YIELD
25-30 KT WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE
ATTM IN DETAILS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NW HAITI ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NW
COAST OF JAMAICA. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED SIZABLE AREA OF 20-25
KT NE WINDS TO NW OF BOUNDARY...IN LEE OF CUBA...AND SW OF JAMAICATO
NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS...WHILE WINDS IN WINDWARD PASSAGE ALSO
LIKELY 20-25 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS UNDERDONE ACROSS THIS AREA BY 1-3
FT. BUOY 42057 HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 8 FT OVERNIGHT AND BRIEFLY
JUMPED TO 9 FT...WHILE 42056 IS AT 6 FT. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED
WW3-NWPS BLEND ACROSS THIS AREA...AND EXPECTING TO SEE LATEST NWPS
MORE IN LINE.

WINDS NW OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS
THE RIDGE TO THE N IS SQUASHED BY APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND GULF OF MEXICO FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS E OF 85W...PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS
WILL RESTRENGTHEN MODESTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO 20 KT NELY FLOW
IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALLOW FOR DOWNWIND
SEAS TO REMAIN 6-7 FT POSSIBLY 8 FT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING FURTHER AS HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SE AND INTO GA-SC
COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND BRING ABOUT PULSING OF
NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OF OF COLOMBIA TO 30 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO 30-35 KT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. WIND GRIDS SHOW 6 HR
PULSING TO MINIMAL GALES EACH NIGHT STARTING SAT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY SUN NIGHT...RIDGING CENTERED
IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND RESULT IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. ECWAVE A
LITTLE HIGHER HERE BY MON NIGHT AND WOULD BLEND INTO FORECAST...IF
IT WERE AVAILABLE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE E-SE PROGRESS E OF 65W...AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR 21N65W ACROSS NW HAITI...AND EXPECTED
TO MEANDER THERE THROUGH 36-48 HRS BEFORE SINKING SE SUN...WHERE
IT WILL LIE W-E ALONG ABOUT 20N. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KT NW OF FRONT TO ABOUT 100-120 NM...WHILE PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTS TO SE OF FRONT TO NE COAST OF PR. ACTIVE
CNVTN CONTINUES ALONG TROUGH ATTM AS BASE OF SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS MONA PASSAGE ATTM. ELSEWHERE...NE
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS DEPICTED W OF BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
STRAITS OF FL...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYLCONIC FLOW
PREVAILED ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. WW3 2-3 FT LOW ACROSS THE AREA E
OF 75W...WHERE SEAS ARE BEING DOMINATED IN FADING NWLY SWELL.

FRONT ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO ATTM WILL SHIFT SE INTO NW PORTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY 00Z THIS EVENING...REACH FROM 30N64W TO STRAITS OF
FL BY 12Z SAT THEN STALL ALONG 21N SUN AS BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TO N OF FRONT. ANOTHER LOW SUPPORTING THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO BOMB OUT ACROSS MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH GALES IN EITHER SIDE OF FRONT BRUSHING N
PORTIONS E OF 75W LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
DIPPING SE INTO AREA WATERS E OF 65W SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. GFS
HAS REMAINED BORDERLINE WITH GALE LOCATION IN RECENT RUNS BUT
EURO MODELS SUGGEST GALES SHIFTING INTO N PORTIONS OF AREA AND
WILL GO WITH GALES DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY N OF 29N OR 30N.
ECWAVE OUTPUT WOULD BE NICE HERE...BUT NOT AVAILABLE...AND WILL
TRY TO BLEND IN LATEST NWPS WHEN IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD SE INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND ANCHOR NEAR 31N74W BY SUN MORNING. THAT HIGH
WILL RACE E-SE REACHING 30N55W BY MON MORNING. A POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION MON MORNING WITH
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING SWLY GALES ACROSS NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF
FRONT MON MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS
MON AFTERNOON THEN REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS AND SE FL
OVERNIGHT MON THEN BECOME STRUNG OUT ALONG 25N TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FROPA...AND SUGGEST
GALES OCCURRING N OF 29-30N ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.