000
AGXX40 KNHC 251800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WED AND THU.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS A
WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO TEXAS. THIS OVERALL
RIDGING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE
HINTING AT A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WITH LESS AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO
SOME OF THE MODELS IN THE LATEST GRID PACKAGE AND SURFACE
PROGS...AND IS THE REASON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM
TO HIGH AND NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF ASIDE FROM THE SW
GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4
FT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST
SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING WILL
PROPAGATE TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
MEANDERING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SUPPORT FRESH
NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT HIGH SEAS FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SW N
ATLC AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXTENT OF THE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A PAIR OF WAVES PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE
GRADUALLY MERGED AS PER THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS. THE COMBINED WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE NEXT NOTABLE WAVE JUST EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA AND LIKELY
WILL NOT REACH 55W OVER THE ATLC UNTIL WED NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS AND WILL ACT TO
ERODE THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WILL REACH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING MON AND DISSIPATING MON NIGHT. THE
SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH
FRONTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTS. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST NIGHT WINDS ENHANCE TO
NEAR 25KT UNTIL LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS
AND 1 TO 2 FEET FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO THE BAHAMAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.