412
AGXX40 KNHC 150818
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
318 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from New Orleans LA to
Brownsville TX into NE Mexico. Surface observations show fresh to
strong northerly winds within the Texas coastal waters. Northerly
winds will rapidly increase to strong to near gale force later
today, then increase to minimal gale offshore of Mexico, reaching
near Veracruz tonight. Seas will build to 8-14 ft W of the front.
The front will stall from near Tampa Bay FL to 25N95W to 19N95W
by late tonight, with models suggesting that broad and weak low
pressure possibly developing along the boundary in the SW Gulf
by early Sat, then move northward into the NW Gulf through Sat
evening with SE-S flow on the eastern side of the low increasing
to fresh to strong. The low will then move inland over eastern
Texas Sun morning, where it will then linger along with broad
troughing over the coastal plain into early next week. Atlc high
pressure that ridges westward across the area will block the
trough from proceeding eastward across the forecast waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A frontal trough over the western Caribbean extending from W of
Jamaica to central Panama will dissipate this morning, and the
seas will subside to 5-7 ft. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
north of the region this weekend, and strengthen the gradient
across the central Caribbean, where highest winds will reach
minimal gale each night through Tue. Winds will diminish slightly
to 25-30 during the day. Seas will build to 9-14 ft near the
coast of Colombia.

The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage during the
weekend into early next week, covering the entire central and SW
Caribbean Saturday night through Tuesday night, with plumes of
fresh to strong winds also across the approach to the Windward
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola and Cuba.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front has transitioned to a broad trough that extends
across the basin from 23N65W to central Cuba. Relatively weak
high pressure is behind the front. Scatterometer and surface
observations indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds W of the
trough. Large northerly swell to 12 ft covering the NE waters,
will decay through tonight, with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will increase in north-central waters as another weak
frontal boundary north of the area, with little impact today.
The boundary will push south of 31N tonight through Saturday
night, with winds becoming fresh to strong and seas building to
8-10 ft N of 29N E of 77W. These conditions then shift east of
the area by early Sunday.

Strong high pressure will then build behind this front, with
ridging settling along 28N into early next week, ushering in
fairly tranquil marine conditions across the entire basin.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today into tonight.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today into tonight.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
Gale Warning tonight.
Gale Warning Sat night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.