000
AGXX40 KNHC 010801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ECMWF BEYOND 72 HRS

WEAK E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY N AND INLAND THIS MORNING AS MODEST RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS WRN ATLC IS PUSHING WEAK FRONT ACROSS ATLC TO
ABOUT 29N ALONG 72W. FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
PORTIONS WHILE STRONG SE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN THERMAL
TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED NW FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO S CENTRAL
PORTIONS. COASTAL OBS FROM PROGRESSO SHOWED AND ESE COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ONLY REACHED AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS LIKELY 5-7 FT ACROSS LARGE SWATH OF S
CENTRAL TO NW PORTIONS WHERE LONG SE FETCH HAS PREVAILED OF
RECENT. FRESH ESE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH STRAITS AND LIKELY
YIELDING SEAS TO 6 FT W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEPICTED IN GOES-R LOW CLOUD CHANNEL ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS OF TEXAS AND SW LA W OF 91.5W AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE.
IFR PROBS THERE SUGGEST MVFR VSBYS WHILE OBS GENERALLY REPORTING
VSBYS 3-5 NM WITH A COUPLE STATIONS 1-3 NM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS
WITH WEAK FRONT REACHING TEXAS COAST MON...N TO S TROUGH
PERSISTING ACROSS SW PORTIONS BUT OFFSHORE OF TYPICAL COASTAL
TROUGH...AND ATLC RIDGING PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE E. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH LATE
AFTERNOON NEXT 2 DAYS AND PRODUCE SEABREEZE ALONG N COAST TO
AROUND 25 KT...POSSIBLY 25-30 KT THIS EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH POSITION OF WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO BASIN...AND STRENGTH OF NLY FLOW BEHIND IT
WED THROUGH THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF BEYOND TUE...WHICH
FORECASTS NWLY FLOW ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT REACHING
25-30 KT TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN NW
TO N WINDS 20 KT ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF BASIN WED AND WED NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF WEAK WINTER FRONTS AND TOO WILL
INDUCE NLY TEHUANTEPEC EVENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO NE CARIB IS
MAINTAINING A LOW TO MID LEVEL WEAKNESS THERE PRODUCING PERSISTENTLLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHILE MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS ENHANCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOIST ZONE FROM SE OF JAMAICA E AND NE
ACROSS NE CARIB. ACTIVE CNVTN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOIST ZONE BEGINS TO SEPARATE. THIS WEAKNESS ALSO PRODUCING BROAD
TROUGHING N TO S ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB EXTENDING NWD INTO ATLC.
FRESH ESE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CARIB
WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN. SUFFICIENT ATLC RIDGING INTO NW PORTIONS FOR
NOCTURNAL MAX ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AT THIS TIME... WHERE GFS IS
FORECAST 20-25 KT. BROAD TROUGH TO SHIFT WWD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE IN PATTERN AND RESULTANT WINDS AND
SEAS...WITH AMPLE DURATION OF WINDS ACROSS SE CARIB TO BUILD SEAS
6-8 FT BY THIS TIME SUN NIGHT. ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NE
MON THROUGH TUE FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING OF PRES GRADIENT...WHILE
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS WNW INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND
WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN PEAK WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SELY FLOW
WILL OPEN UP INTO SE GULF ACROSS W PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHES THE STRAITS OF
FL EARLY THU AND INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIB ON THU. HAVE
FOLLOWED ECMWF WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEYOND WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ECMWF BEYOND 72 HRS

W SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS WRN ATLC BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKING S ACROSS NRN WATERS THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING
FROM NE CARIB NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING LLVL TROUGH THERE
AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB EXTENDS N INTO ATLC ALONG ABOUT 71-72W
AND ACTING TO BLOCK RIDGING INTO AREA WATERS S OF FRONT...LEAVING
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS TOP OF TROUGHS VEERING SELY
INTO FLORIDA COAST ATTM. SEAS RUNNING 3-5 FT ATTM MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT JUST S OF FRONT.

RIDGE TO BUILD SSW SLIGHTLY INTO AREA TODAY AND NUDGE FRONT S TO
ABOUT 28N BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THIS TO
TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY N OF WWD SHIFTING TROUGH ACROSS SE
HALF OF BAHAMAS...AND INCREASE TRADES THERE TO 15-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TO SHIFT NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC MON
THROUGH TUE AND LEAVE RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO AREA AND PRODUCE SE
TO S WIND FLOW ACROSS AREA DURING THAT TIME...AHEAD OF FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF EASTERN SEABOARD BY WED. SLY FLOW TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT NRN WATERS LATE WED AHEAD OF FRONT...AS IT MOVES INTO
NW PORTIONS OF AREA...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 24N E OF
FRONT THU...PER ECMWF...AS FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO STRAITS AND NW
BAHAMAS...AND MODEST LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS. NW
WINDS 20-25 KT FORECAST BY ECMWF BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT THU ACROSS
FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND NW BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.