000
AGXX40 KNHC 050552
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
152 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS
AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
ENHANCED CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE SAME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL BE
DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER
THE NE GULF HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE SW LA COAST. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT W TO THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TODAY WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE FL STRAITS...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
NW TO THE NE TX COAST. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE BAHAMA
CHANNEL TO THE FL STRAITS LATE TODAY...THEN SHIFT NW ACROSS THE
FAR SE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT N OFF THE W-CENTRAL
FL COAST ON MON AND LOSE IDENTITY BY TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRES
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N THROUGH TUE...THEN THE SE RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF
WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 15-20
KT WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT
NOCTURNAL EVENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NOCTURNAL TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND
ALSO ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA. NE-E SWELLS WILL
GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT AS FAR W AS 13N78W THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN COMBINED SEAS OF ONLY 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS FROM SUN-WED.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY...PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON
AND TUE. EXPECT A MODERATE-FRESH NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE
WAVES.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 24N79W TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO THE SE FL COAST. THE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN THROUGH SUN...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 80W ON MON...AND MOVE
INLAND FL ON MON NIGHT. BY THEN A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR 26N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N69W ON TUE NIGHT WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT W TO
NEAR 28N75W ON WED. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE
TROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN
NIGHT...OTHERWISE 5-10 KT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AND LOW AND TROUGH.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.