000
AGPN40 KWNM 292053
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
153 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE OVERALL WEAK PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EPAC FOR
SOME TIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK
COASTAL TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CALFORNIA CST...OCCASIONALLY
EXTENDING N ALONG THE SW OREGON CST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CA CST
WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT...TO AS HIGH AS 15-25 KT. FURTHER N...THE
FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY W-NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WA/OR WATERS AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG
THE CENTRAL CA CST ACROSS THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. FURTHER N...A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS INDICATED OVER THE WA/OR WATERS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15-20 INADV OF BNDRY.

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WA/OR WATERS. THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH
LOCATION OF A RIDGE AXIS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS...ALSO THE
GFS FCSTS A LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE WA WATERS...WHILE NEITHER
THE UKMET OR ECMWF INDICATE THAT. WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING
THE GFS THROUGH 06Z THU...THEN TRANSITION THE UKMET THROUGH 12Z
SUN. THE UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ON THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATER IN THE WEEK. I FINISHED
OUT THE WEEK BY USING THE GFS.

SEAS...THE WAM INITIALZIED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN ENP...THEREFOR I
POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE WAM THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
TRANSITIONED TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE WAM AND ENP THROUGH 12Z SUN.
I WILL FINISH BY USING THE ENP.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.