000
AGPN40 KWNM 022106
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
106 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 41N141W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N AND S ALONG 140W. LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER NW CA. ASCAT AND RAPID SCAT PASSES FROM
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z DID INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS
OVER THE NRN AND NW PORTION OF CENTRAL CA OFFSHORE WATERS.

THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THU. BEYOND THAT
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC.
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LOW PRES OVER NW CA WILL WEAKEN
WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG 140W SHIFTS E. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LIGHTER WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE N AND CENTRAL CA WATERS AS THE
N TO NW WINDS DIMINISH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WA WATERS TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO THU THROUGH
SAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER E WITH THE TRACK OF
LOW FCST TO REMAIN WELL W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THOUGH IT HAS
SHIFTED A BIT W COMPARED TO THE 06Z RUN. EVEN SO...THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC KEEP THE LOW FURTHER W...AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
GO CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN
SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE GRIDS USING THE GFS 10M WINDS THROUGH 12Z
THU...THEN WILL POPULATE USING THE ECMWF WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM WITH OBSERVED VALUES
WITHIN A FT OF THE MODEL. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
MWW3/WCMWF WAM THROUGH 12Z TUE..THEN WILL USE MWW3 THROUGH 12Z
THU. FROM 12Z THU AND BEYOND WILL USE ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.