000
AGPN40 KWNM 160317
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
817 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Per the 00Z NCEP surface analysis chart, a high pressure ridge
was the dominate feature over the Washington, Oregon and
California OPC offshore waters. Will not make major changes to
the ongoing forecast in this intermediate update given the 18Z
GFS/NAM were in good agreement with the prior 12Z model package.
Please see previous discussion for additional information.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The 18Z surface analysis indicated a trough extending north along
the coast from California to central Washington. High pressure
was centered west of the southern California waters and well
northeast of the Washington waters. The latest available Ascat
pass from around 1750Z with decent coverage over the offshore and
coastal waters indicated winds 15 KT or less over the offshore
waters with the strongest winds noted over the Washington
offshore and coastal waters. This matches up well with the GFS
forecast wind fields.

The 12Z models all continue to be in very good agreement through
the forecast period, with light wind regime persisting as high
pressure remains dominant. The coastal trough will also remain in
place through the period extending along the California coast to
the southern Oregon coast. However, winds will remain well below
gale threshold. The only area with winds exceeding 20 KT the next
few days, and in the 20 to 25 KT range will be the far northeast
portion of the southern California waters near coastal gaps as a
result of Santa Ana winds inland. Expect stronger winds over the
adjacent coastal waters. These will subside by Wednesday. For the
wind grids, will continue to use the GFS through the period.

.SEAS...The 18Z sea state anlsysi indicated that observed seas
matched up well with the ENP forecast values. Similar to wind
grids, will also go close to the ENP values through the period.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
None.

$$

.Forecaster Holley/Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.