000
AGPN40 KWNM 310918
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
218 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE SAT IMG SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONV CLDS ARE JUST NW OF THE
REGION AND THEY ARE ASSCTD WITH A LOW PRES 1017 MB CNTRD 240 NM W
OF THE NRN WTRS. THERE IS ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONV CLDS ACRS THE
SRN WTRS THAT IS PART OF THE TROF THAT XTNDS FROM A LOW PRES 1011
MB NR 30N135W. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LGHTNG IS CONFINED TO INLAND
ESPCLY OVR THE WASH AND OREG STATES. THE RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY
TSTMS CELLS OVR THE FRCST REGION. AT 31/0600Z HGH PRES 1025 MB
STILL ANCHORED W OF THE REGION NR 40N155W...HAS A RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO XTND E INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. AN INLAND LOW
PRES TROF STILL XTNDS ACRS CAL. THE PRES GRDNT IS STILL SLACK OVR
THE REGION AND THE MAX OBS WINDS ARE 15 KT. THE LATST ASCAT PASS
AT 0540Z THO MISSED THE WRN PARTS...HAD NO INDC OF WINDS ABOVE 20
KT.

SYNOP FEATURES ALOFT INDC ZONAL FLOW TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM
THEN SOME ENERGY WILL DROP FROM THE NW BREAKIG THE ZNL FLOW CYCLE
INTO NW AND RESULT IN A TIGHT PRES GRDNT AT THE SFC DURING MID
WEEK AND THAT WILL MOSTLY ELEVATE WINDS OVR THE ERN PARTS BECAUSE
OF THE PERSISTNC OF THE INLAND TROF. THE GLBL MDLS ARE GENERALLY
IN GUD AGRMNT ON THE MAIN SYNOP FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION. ALL THE GLBL MDLS FOR THE 0000Z RUN CLOSELY DEPICT A VERY
SIMILAR SYNOP PATTERN WITH JUST MNR DIFFS IN THE WIND SPEEDS.
UKMETHR/GFS30M/CMC SHOW WINDS WILL REACH 40 KT OVR THE ERN PARTS
NR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NRN CAL WTRS WHILE THE REST INCLUDING
THE ECMWFHR AND EVEN GFS10M ONLY HAVE WINDS TO 30 KT. GFS30M AND
UKMETHR HV A BETTER SOLN CONSIDERING THAT THEY EXHIBIT THE IMPACT
OF THE SLATED ENERGY DURING MID WEEK AND SO WILL STAY WITH GFS30M.
WRNGS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE ERN PARTS.

.SEAS...THE SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 9 FT OVR THE NRN AND SRN WTRS
LEAVING 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVR CNTRL REGION. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY
TC MARIE HV BEEN AFFECTING THE SRN WTRS WHILE THE FRNTL SYS
PASSING THE NRN WTRS HV BEEN BULDING SEAS OVR THE NRN WTRS. THE
LATST JASON PASS AT 0230Z PASSED JUST W OF THE REGION AND HAD
INDC HGR SEAS OVR THE SRN AND NRN WTRS. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID WV MDL
HAS BEEN FITTING WELL WITH THE OBS SEAS PATTERN AND HAS ALSO BEEN
QUITE CONSSTNT WITH THE FCST ESPCLLY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
ECMWFWAVE SEAS PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE CLOSE TO NWW3 WITH DIFFS
JUST IN THE XTNDD PRD AS IT HAS SEAS REACHING 13 FT COMPARED TO
NWW3 WHICH HAS 11 FT PEAKS ABOUT WED NGHT. WILL STAY WITH NWW3
THRU TUE THEN BLEND WITH THE ECMWFWAVE THRU THU NIGHT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ETSS SHOW SURGE TO 3 FT OVR
THE CNTRL AND SRN CAL WED. THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELLS
APPROACHING THE WTRS FROM THE S.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.