000
AGPN40 KWNM 211531
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
731 AM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The network issue is beginning to slowly be resolved. The 06Z GFS
has come in, as well as the CMC and NAM. Hoping that by the next
package we will have access to the ECMWF and UKMET.

12Z surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure moving SE
through the California waters. An associated cold front will
continue S through the waters through Thursday. An earlier ASCAT
pass was available to view this morning, showing that winds are
remaining just below gale throughout the forecast area.

Forecast continues to be be fairly similar as the ridge continues
to the W of the waters. A series of shortwaves are still expected
to move SE across the waters over the next week. Available data
are in good agreement throughout, so will begin the grids with
the 06Z 10m GFS, and switch to the 30m GFS based on stability.

Some gales are expected as the shortwaves pass through tonight,
Thursday, and Sun and Sun night. Will reduce the extent of the
gales Sun and Dun night with the shortwave moving through as it
seems a bit overdone based on new model data.

Overall, the forecast was changed a bit with the new available
data, but the headlines will remain mostly the same.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The network issues remain this morning as most data is not in
NAWIPS. Some data however is ingested into GFE including the GFS
and CMC. The overall forecast this go round is similar to the
past few days as a ridge continues to be anchored W of the waters
allowing NW flow and a series of shortwaves to dig SE across the
waters over the next week. Given the relatively stable pattern
and lack of model data I will continue to populate the wind grids
using the GFS, either the 10M or 30M given the stability,
throughout the forecast period. A moderate chance of a small area
of gales remain on Thursday as a shortwave digs SE across the
region. After the shortwave passes through the California waters
the gradient will tighten along the coast as the trough
strengthens. This will allow for the possibility of gales across
the inner waters of the central California area. Later in the
week there is a possibility of gales across the NW PZ5 waters as
a system passes E across the northern portion.

Seas...I will populate the wave grids using the ENP throughout.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale tonight.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale tonight.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
Gale Thursday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
Gale Thursday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
Gale Thursday night.

$$

.Forecaster Sommerville/Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.