000
AGPN40 KWNM 230344
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
844 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE IR SAT IMG GOES-W SHOWS CONV CLDS NR AND AHEAD OF A FRNT ACRS
THE CNTRL REGION WITH SOME LIGHTNG BEHIND THE FRNT MAINLY OVR THE
NW OF THE NRN WTRS. THE RADAR HAS SOME TSTMS OVR THE CNTRL REGION.
AT 00Z LOW PRES 998 MB OVR THE N-ERN PARTS OF THE WASH WTRS XTNDS
A CLD FRNT SW ACRS THE CNTRL REGIONS. AN AREA FO LOW PRES WITH
SEVRL CNTRS OF LOW PRES STRETCHES SE FROM THE MAIN LOW PRES 979 MB
IN THE GLF OF AK THRU THE LOW PRES OVR THE NE WTRS INTO INLAND LOW
PRES 1004 MB VR WASH/OREG STATES. HGH PRES 1020 MB W OF THE SRN
WTRS XTNDS A RIDGE ACRS THE SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDT IS FAIRLY
TIGHT OVR THE NRN WTRS INCLUDING THE NRN CAL WTRS. THE MAX OBS
WINDS ARE IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE OVR THE NRN WTRS. THE LAST ASCAT
PASS AT 1823Z MISSED THE NRN WTRS AND DID NOT INDCT REGIONS OF HGR
WINDS. THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 12 AND 15 FT OVR THE NRN WTRS AND 8 TO
12 FT OVR THE SRN WTRS. THE GLBL MDLS ARE IN SOME AGRMNT OVR THE
SHRT TERM AND SO WILL GO WITH GFS FOR THIS UPDATE. IN THE SHORT
TERM LOW PRES OVR THE N-ERN WTRS WILL MOVE INLAND AND THE HGH TO
THE W OF THE SRN WTRS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN THE SAME VCNTY. THE
CLD FRNT WILL MOVE SE ACRS THE CNTRL REGION AND WEAKEN.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A CD FNT XTNDS FM NR THE OR COAST INTO THE NRN CA WTRS EARLY THIS AFTN.
WINDS INADVOF FNT OVR THE OR WTRS AT BUOY 46015 WERE AT 32 KT AND
GUSTING TO 41 KT AS OF 20Z. THE FNT WL CONT TO SLOWLY MOV SE ACRS
THE NRN CA WTRS TNGT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT INADVOF FNT OVR THE
OFFSHR WTRS DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATER TNGT...BEFORE CROSSING
INTO THE CNTRL CA WTRS THU. MDLS SMLR WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING THE
FNT LATER TNGT. ELSW OVR THE GLF OF AK THIS AFTN A CLOSED UPR LOW
WL SLOWLY MOV SWD TNGT AND THU AS A SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES SWD
ARND THE WRN AREAS OF THE CLOSED LOW. COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES
WITH MDLS DVLPG MULTIPLE LOW CNTRS WITH A DVLPG LOW MOVG NE INTO
THE NRN CA WTRS LATE FRI AFTN/EARLY FRI EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SMLR WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW INIT...ALTHO BY SAT
GFS/UKMET ARE QUICKER MOVG THE LOW TO THE NE TOWARDS THE COAST.
PREFER THE SLOWER TRACK FM THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE DIFFS IS NOT
SIG...BUT WL FAVOR THE ECMWF AND USE ITS GUID FOR THE UPDATED
GRIDS THIS AFTN. AFT THE LOW PRES MOVS INLAND LATE SAT NGT...HIGH
PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FM THE W SUN BEFORE NEXT LOW PRES SYS
APPROACHES FM THE W THE WA/OR WTRS. ATTM PREFER THE UKMET/ECMWF
WHICH TRACKS LOW PRES TO THE W OF THE WTRS AND BRINGS SLY GALES
INADVOF FNT INTO THE WTRS . THE GFS TRACKS A STG LOW INTO THE OR
WTRS...BUT THIS DOES AGREE WITH ANY OTHER GUID...SO WL STAY WITH
NRN TRACK OF OTHER GUID.

SEAS...12Z ENP WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WV GUID INIT RSNBLY WELL AND
PLAN TO BLEND 50/50 THRU 12Z FRI...THEN WL FAVOR THE ECMWF WV GUID
FOR THE RMNDR OF THE FCST PD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
GALE FRI.
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
GALE FRI.
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
GALE FRI.
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
STORM POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
GALE FRI.
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
GALE FRI.
GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.