000
AGPN40 KWNM 281438
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
638 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THE 06Z GFS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HIGH PRES
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WHILE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE CA AND S OREGON COASTS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MODERATE N TO NW WINDS OVER THE CA AND EXTREME SE
OREGON WATERS...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH GALE
THRESHOLD. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BY
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE WINDS REMAINING
JUST BELOW GALE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE 12Z SEA STATE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS WERE MOSTLY WITHIN A FT OF
THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE IR SAT IMG HAS NO SIGF CONV CLDS OVR THE REGION AND NO LGHTNG
EITHER. AT 06Z HGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE REGION WITH A VERY SLACK
PRES GRDNT. LOW PRES SE OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS HAS AN OCLDD FRNT
THAT STRTCHES E THEN CONITUES SE AS A WRM FRNT AND S AS A CLD FRNT
PASSING W OF ANOTHER HGH PRES. THE OBSVD WINDS ARE ONLY REACHING
15 KT. THE LATST ASCAT PASS AT 0538Z HAD NO WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS OVR
THE REGION.

THERE IS VERY LITTE ENRGY OVR THE REGION THO THERE IS AN UPPRLVL
TROF. ENERGY WIL BE LOCALLY GENERATED AS THE UPPRLVL TROF MOVES
INLAND AND THEN AN UPPRLVL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW. THE ONLY SIG ENRGY
THAT WILL REACH THE WTRS WILL BE TWD THE END OF FCST PRD. AS SUCH
THE PRES GRDNT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SLACK AND THAT WIL KEEP WINDS
BELOW GALE FORCE.

THE GLB MDLS ARE IN GUD AGRMNT AND SO WILL STAY WITH GFS. IN THE
SHORT TERM HGH PRES RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. THE SENARIO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
XTNDD PRD.

.SEAS...ARE EQUALLY MEDICORE WITH HGST SEAS BETWN 6 AND 8 FT OVR
THE FAR SRN WTRS AND THEY RANGE BTWN 5 AND 3 FT OVR THE NRN AND
CNTRL REGION. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSSTNT AND
WILL STAY CLOSE TO IT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.