000
AGPN40 KWNM 290200
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
700 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE 18Z GFS IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z GFS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND
IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
VERY CLOSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY W OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS MOVING SE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING.
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SAT AND BEYOND...THERE CONTINUE TO
BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF/UKMET/GEM WITH THE
NON GFS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF. THE 00Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED OBSERVED SEAS
WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED THEREAFTER. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM
THE 12Z GFS UNTIL 12Z SAT...THEN LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AFTER THAT.

WINDS TO 25 KT OCCURING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AS A
COASTAL TROF INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES TO THE W. PATTERN WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND THU...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH.

THEN SERIES OF LOWS AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT AND
MEANDERS OVER THE REGION INTO SAT BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA SAT. SECOND LOW THEN ALSO
MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHER WATERS SAT INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS...BUT AGREE ON OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS INTO SUN NIGHT. WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET STILL INDICATE A LOW PRES AREA
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT
BOTH MODELS WEAKER WITH THE LOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
DISSIPATE IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS MON AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE MON
AND MON NIGHT TIME FRAME. WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
IN THE CCA BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NRN WATERS MON NIGHT.

TO THE S...LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST SAT NIGHT WHILE A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
EXPECTED.


.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WAVEWATCH WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF CURRENT
OBS. WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 12Z ENP UNTIL 12Z SAT...THEN
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WAVE THEREAFTER.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
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.FORECASTER KOSIER/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.