000
AGPN40 KWNM 282035
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
135 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN
RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTER NOW NR
40N140W WL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WNW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU SAT NITE
WHL A SFC TROF REMAINS IN PLACE INLAND CALIFORNIA. IN THE NLY
GRADIENT BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM ALL FCST
GALE FORCE BL WINDS ACRS THE NRN MOST PZ6 AND SE MOST PZ5 WTRS
TONITE THRU SAT NITE...WHL THE USUALLY CONSERVATIVE 12Z
UKMET/ECMWF FCST SOLID 25-30 KT BL WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS. FURTHER N IN THE NLY GRADIENT 06Z
NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT VS THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS AND THE
OTHER 00Z GLOBAL MDLS IN MAINTAINING THE FCST STRENGTH OF THE NLY
GRADIENT WITH MARGINAL GALES OFF THE NRN PZ6 AND SRN PZ5 WTRS THRU
FRI NITE. FURTHER N THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONT THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE
TRENDS OF FCSTG AN UPR SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS N OF THE PZ5 WTRS
LATE FRI INTO SAT THAT WL CAUSE AN INLAND SFC TROF TO DVLP WHICH
WL RESULT IN THE NNWLY GRADIENT ACRS THE NERN PZ5 WTRS TO
STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE LATE FRI AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT NITE.
SO WITH THE 12Z MDLS RMNG CONSISTENT...AS WAS DONE PREVLY...PLAN
ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 30M AND 10M BL WINDS FOR TONITE THRU SAT
NITE WHICH WL RESULT IN NO MAJOR CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD GALE
WRNGS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS (ESPECLY THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT AND SHARE SMLR FCST TIMING
FOR A CLOSED UPR LOW TO APRCH FM THE W SAT NITE/SUN...THEN CROSS
THE NRN PZ5 WTRS SUN NITE/MON WHICH WL SPRT A DSIPTG COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE PZ5 WTRS LATE SUN INTO MON WHICH ALLOW THE NLY
GRADIENT TO GRADLY WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE FIRST ACRS THE PZ5
WTRS SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS THE PZ6 WTRS SUN NITE. THEN TO
SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS THEN FCST A
SFC HIGH TO STRENGTHEN W OF THE PZ5 WTRS LATE MON NITE INTO TUE
NITE WHICH WL AGAIN CAUSE THE NLY GRADIENT TO GRADLY RESTRENGTHEN
THRUT THE PZ5 AND NRN PZ6 WTRS (LKLY REACHING GALE FORCE AGAIN
ACRS THE NRN PZ6 WTRS TUE NITE). SO PLAN ON CONTG TO POPULATE WITH
A 50/50 BLEND OF THE STIL REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 30M AND 10M BL
WINDS FOR SUN THRU TUE NITE...WITH SM ADDITIONAL MINOR EDITS IN
DEFERERNCE TO THE SMLR 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS.

.SEAS...OVERALL THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM HV BOTH
INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS EQUALLY WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
WITH THEIR ASCD GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEING SMLR AND WITH THEIR FCST
DIFFERENCES GNRLY RMNG IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...PLAN ON POPULATING
OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III
AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS FOR TONITE THRU TUE NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.