000
AGPN40 KWNM 270234
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
734 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

AT 00Z A HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS OVER THE WA/OR/CA WATERS W/A LOW PRES
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF INLAND CA EXTENDING N INTO THE SW
HALF OF INLAND OR. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS 18Z
GFS/NAM SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT W/THE PRIOR 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE
WHICH ITSELF CONTINUES TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HENCE FEEL
NO REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT GRIDS IN PLACE AND ALLOW FORECAST AND
WARNING HEADLINES TO REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW IN THIS INTERMEDIATE
UPDATE.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER 18Z SFC ANALYSIS A HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUED OVER THE EPAC W
OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN CA OFSHR WTRS AND EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE
PZ5 OFSHR WTRS...WHILE A LOW PRES TROF REMAINED INLAND OVR CA AND
EXTENDING N INTO WRN OREGON AND WA. ASCAT-B 18Z PASS REVEALED NLY
5 TO 15 KT OVER THE WA WATERS...AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER THE OREGON
WATERS. DATA OVER THE CA WATERS WAS MAINLY AVAILABLE W OF 123W
WITH 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT SOME 30 KT NR COAST AT PT ARENA. LIMITED
DATA IN FAR SE SRN CA WTRS SHOWED 10 KT OR LESS. 12Z GLOBAL MDLS
AND 12Z NAM CONTINUED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. REPOPULATED GRIDS THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z
GFS 30M AND 10M BL WINDS...WITH 50 PCT FOR EACH EXCP IN THE
STRONGER CONDS EXPECED TUE NIGHT USED A 75/25 PCT BLEND FAVORING
THE GFS 30M WINDS. AFTER THU NIGHT MDLS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES
MAINLY IN THE NRN WTRS AS GFS TAKES A WKNG LOW PRES SYSTEM INTO
THE SRN GLF OF AK ON A TRACK FARTHER S THAN NON-NCEP MDLS. FAVORED
COMPROMISE 12Z ECMWF FOR DAY 5 FCST. THIS APPRS TO HAVE MINOR
EFFECT ON WINDS OFF CA WITH GFS AND ECMWF SPRTG ENDING THE GALES
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR WRNGS NEW FCST HAS LTLCHG IN TIMING OF START OF
GALES TUE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFDC...ABV AVG IN NRN CA INNER WTRS
S TO PIGEON PT. DID EXTEND GALES S OF PIGEON PT TO ZONE 830 THU
NIGHT WHEN EVENT IS NR MAXIMUM...BUT CONFDC IS LOW TO MDT THERE
AND AVG CONFDC FOR SE OREGON WTRS.

.SEAS...FAVORED 12Z ECMWF WAM THRU TUE NIGHT WITH ITS BETTER
INITIALIZATION AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONDS OVERALL...THEN FOR WED
THRU THU NIGHT USED 12Z ENP WW3 WITH SLGTLY HIGHER CONDS IN GALE
AREA EXCP INCREASED VALUES BY 10 PCT. THEN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT
WHEN 12Z ECMWF IS FAVORED FOR WINDS...USED 12Z ECMWF WAM WITH ITS
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.