000
AGPN40 KWNM 232028
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1228 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT
THAT A HIGH PRES RIDGE WL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE NRN PZ6 WTRS
TONITE THRU TUE NITE WHL GRADLY WKNG WHICH WL ALLOW THE NOW MOD
STRONG (20-25 KT) NLY GRADIENT TO ITS S ACRS THE SRN PZ6 WTRS TO
ALSO GRADLY WEAKEN. N OF THIS RIDGE...THE 12Z MDLS HV COME INTO
BETTER AGRMT (THO STIL EXCLUDING THE LIKELY TOO STRONG 12Z GLOBAL
GEM) THAT A WARM FRONT WL LIFT N ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS
TONITE/MON...THEN BCM QSTNRY NR THE FAR NRN PZ5 WTRS MON NITE INTO
TUE NITE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK ASCD FRONTAL WAVE PASS E ALONG THE
FRONT. THE END RESULT OF THIS WARM FROPA AND THEN ITS FRONTAL WAVE
PASSAGES WL BE A MOD STRONG (GNRLY 20-25 KT) SSWLY GRADIENT DVLPG
ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS. OVERALL A BLENDED 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS
RSNBL FOR THIS GRADIENT. SO FOR OUR SHORT TERM WIND GRIDS PLAN ON
POPULATING WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR TONITE...AND THEN WL
TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR MON
THRU TUE NITE WITH SM SUBSEQUENT EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
ECMWF. SO WITH THESE FCST WINDS WL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR SHORT
TERM CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z GFS/GFSP/ECMWF HV COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGRMT AND ARE SPRTD BY THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND THE LATEST
WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FCSTG A MR SIG FRONTAL LOW TO DVLP
LATE WED AND PASS NE ACRS THE NRN PZ5 WTRS WED NITE STRENTHENING
THE SSWLY GRADIENT SMWHT ACRS A LARGER PORTION OF THE NRN WTRS.
THEN THU/THU NITE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...DUE TO THE SPRT OF THE 12Z
GFSP/GEFS MEAN...REMAIN THE PREFERRED MDLS AS THEY FCST THE
FRONTAL LOW TO MOV INLAND AND PULL THE FRONT SLOWLY S INTO THE SRN
PZ5 WTRS WITH ITS ASCD FCST GRADIENTS WKNG SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE FOR
WED THRU THU NITE PLAN ON CONTG TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M
BL WINDS WITH AGAIN SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
ECMWF. THEN FRI/FRI NITE THE DISPARITY BTWN THE 12Z GFS/GFSP/ECMWF
INCREASES IN RGRDS TO THEIR FCST TRACKS AND FCST STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT STRONGER SFC LOW TO APRCH THE OFSHR WTRS. IN RGRDS TO THE
FCST TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS MEAN INDICATING THAT
THE 12Z GFS IS LKLY TOO SLOW...WL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z ECMWF
TRACK...BUT AS A COMPROMISE WL ADJUST IT 6 HRS SLOWER WHICH WL
BRING IT INTO BETTER AGRMT WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. SO FOR FRI/FRI NITE WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING OUR FCST
WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS...TIME SHIFTED 6 HRS
SLOWER.

SEAS...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BWTN THE TWO MDLS NOT EXCEEDING 1-2
FT ON AVERAGE WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND
OF 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS FOR TONITE THRU THU
NITE. THEN SINCE THE ECMWF WL BE FAVORED WL TRANSITION TO
POPULATING WITH ALL 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR FRI/FRI NITE...TIME SHIFTED
6 HRS SLOWER AS WAS DONE FOR ITS FCST WINDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.