000
AGPN40 KWNM 311337
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
637 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THE 12Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CA WATERS...WITH
LOW PRES OVER THE FAR WRN WA WATERS WITH TROF EXTENDING S. THE 06Z
GFS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 00Z GFS...AS WELL AS
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT STILL EXPECTED SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME
GALES POSSIBLE OVER WA COASTAL WATERS MON AS FRONT APPROACHES
COAST. THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU FCST PERIOD. POPULATED WIND
GRIDS WITH 30M WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THRU 06Z SUN...THEN 10M
WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THEREAFTER. LATEST GFS RUN HAS SUPPORT FROM
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET.

COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PZ6 WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
INTO THE SRN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SE OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SAT.

LOW PRES W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NE AND E ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CROSS MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHR WATERS. LEANED TOWARDS HIGHER 30M
WINDS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND WILL
KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT.

CSTL TROUGH SETS UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE SUN AND WEAKENS SUN
NIGHT...WITH NLY WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE.

MODELS IN DECENT AGRMT ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE NE
OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PZ5 WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT. LEANED TOWARDS THE
WEAKER 10M WINDS IN THE MORE STABLE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE OFFSHR WATERS...ALTHOUGH GFS
DOES INDICATE SOME 35 KT WINDS AT 30M ALONG THE PAC NW AS THE
FRONT PINCHES ALONG THE COAST. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
SRN PZ5 WATERS TUE...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A FEW FRONTAL WAVES ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGRMT ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES.

.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
POPULATED WAVE GRIDS WITH 00Z ENP THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.