000
AGPN40 KWNM 122056
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1256 PM PST Wed Dec 12 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The ASCAT pass between 17-19Z across the offshore waters
indicate gales winds moving into the PZ5 waters ahead of a cold
front. An altimeter pass from 14Z shows seas to 24 ft just W of
the Washington waters. The overall forecast pattern will remain
very progressive N of 40N over the offshore area as a steady
stream of strong areas of low pressures and cold front affect the
waters. The lows will track NE, some remaining N of the region
while dragging their associated cold fronts over the waters. The
12Z global models are in better agreement today than yesterday,
however their are still timing differences, especially through
the initial 48 hours as a system intensifies as it approaches the
region. The ECMWF remains the most consistent of the models and
will be the model of choice after 24 hours. For the initial 24
hours I will populate using the GFS, before transitioning to the
ECMWF for the remainder of the week.

Seas...The WAM and ENP were initialized fairly well in the area
of maximum seas, however neither model did as well in the SW
flow. The WAM was slightly low, while in general the ENP was too
high. I will populate the wave grids using a 50/50 blend of the
two wave models throughout the forecast period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...The latest guidance is
indicating surge values of around 1 foot along the coast of
Washington by Thursday night and early Friday and this looks
reasonable.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale tonight.
Gale Thursday night.
Storm Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale today into tonight.
Gale Thursday night.
Storm Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night.
Storm Possible Saturday.
Gale Possible Saturday night.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale tonight.
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale today into tonight.
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday into Monday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Thursday night.
Storm Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday into Monday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Saturday into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday into Monday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
Gale Friday.
Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
Gale Thursday night into Friday.
Gale Possible Saturday into Sunday.
Gale Possible Monday into Monday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
Gale Friday.
Gale Possible Sunday.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.