000
AGPN40 KWNM 180404
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
904 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z NCEP FINAL ANAL SHOWED A CDFNT ALG WA/OREGON CSTS AND SW THRU
NRN CA WTRS WITH HI PRES RIDGING INTO PZ5 WTRS BHND FNT...AND
ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES W OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA WTRS. BUOY 46089
OFF N OREGON CST WAS GUSTING TO 25 KT EARLIER BUT AS OF 03Z GUSTS
WERE DOWN TO 19 KT. GRADIENT BTWN INLAND TROF AND HIGH PRES TO W
APPRS STRONGEST OFF CENTRAL CA WHERE BUOY 46013 RPTD NW G29 KT.
THESE CONDS ARE REFLECTED IN GRIDS AND CURRENT FCST APPRS ON
TARGET. 18Z GFS/NAM RMN IN GOOD AGRMT WITH PRIOR RUNS AND ALSO
OTHER 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE WRNGS IN NRN WTRS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WELL SUPPORTED. ANTICIPATE NO SGFNT CHANGES NEEDED.

SEAS...WILL GENLY FAVOR THE 12Z ENP WW3 FOR EVENING UPDATE WHICH
SHOWS LTLCHG FM NEWER INTERMEDIATE OR 18Z MDL RUN.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD W/MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE PZ5 WATERS. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PZ5 WATER SLIDES E TONIGHT ALLOWING A HIGH PRES
RIDGE TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO FRI. A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PZ5 WATERS LATER
FRI W/GALES DEVELOPING OVER THE PZ5 WATERS FRI NIGHT BUT ENDING BY
SAT. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTANT IN THIS SCENARIO SO CONFDC
REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH. THE FRONT PUSHES E OF THE PZ5 WATERS SAT
W/ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES
MON. A DISSIPATING LOW MOVES SE ACROSS THE WATERS TUE.

OVER THE PZ6 WATERS...COLD FRONT OVER THE N PORTION EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT...W/ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE N PORTION LATE
FRI INTO SAT...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH MON. OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE PZ5 WATERS A HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINATE FEATURE.

.SEAS...WILL GENERALLY FAVOR 12Z NWW3 OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
GALE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
GALE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
GALE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.