000
FXUS66 KLOX 050609
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1009 PM PST Mon Dec 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...04/848 PM.

Breezy north to northeast winds will reoccur tonight into Tuesday
morning and afternoon high temperatures trend warmer under a
ridge. There is a slight chance of light rain Wednesday evening
and Thursday across the central coast. It will cool back to near
normal by Friday, before another round of Santa Ana winds arrive
next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...04/906 PM.

***UPDATE***

Light offshore flow continues this evening with clear skies except
for a few high clouds moving through. Wind gusts were mostly 30
mph today with just a handful of the usual suspects reporting
gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Pressure gradients expected to peak
Tuesday morning but still with minimal upper support and not
expecting winds too much change in peak wind gusts.

Temperatures were a little warmer today than expected, especially
in the valleys, and highs for Tuesday have been adjusted upward
slightly as a result. Tuesday will easily be the warmest day of
the next several as onshore flow returns Wednesday ahead of a weak
system approaching from the northwest. Latest ensemble based
guidance continues to keep rain chances mostly north of Pt
Conception, and realistically, likely north of Santa Barbara
County as well.

***From Previous Discussion***

The warmth will be short-lived as an approaching system shifts
the flow to northwest Wednesday. Most of the area will remain dry,
but northwestern San Luis Obispo County/Central Coast could see
some light rain out of the system Wednesday. By Wednesday night,
chances shift to the interior north-facing slopes. No significant
accumulations are expected. Marine layer clouds will attempt to
develop each night beginning Tuesday night, with patchy fog
expected where clouds form. Little alterations were needed to the
forecast, however did add the chance for light rain to the north-
facing slopes.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...04/231 PM.

Westerly flow continues Thursday as the tail end of a front
swings through the region. This will bring a slight chance for
light rain to portions of the area, favoring northwest San Luis
Obispo County and the north slopes of Ventura County to the
western San Gabriels near the Grapevine, with little to no
accumulations expected. Expecting high temperatures to trend 10-15
degrees colder Thursday over the interior with additional clouds,
falling heights and a colder airmass moving in. However, Friday
looks the coldest through Monday. The pattern Thursday into
Friday will also support strong advisory level north winds through
the Santa Ynez Range, with the SBA-SMX pressure gradient peaking
around -4 mb Thursday night into Friday morning. These winds will
likely reoccur each night, weakening over time through at least
Sunday night. A Santa Ana type wind pattern shows up for the
weekend, and at this time, appears to be moderate in strength.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0602Z.

At 0455Z at KLAX, there was a shallow surface based inversion
with a top at 1500 feet with a maximum temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF, except for a 30% chance of an east
wind of 5 kts from 08Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...04/859 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in forecast.
Through tonight there is a 60% chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds. Seas are expected to at or near SCA level
through Friday, with a dip possible tomorrow during the day.
Wednesday afternoon, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds
returning to the waters south of Point Conception. Thursday there
is a 60% chance of winds expanding across all the outer waters and
lasting through Friday, with a 20% chance of Gale Force winds at
times.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
forecast. Seas are expected to at or near SCA level through
tomorrow morning, with local SCA level winds. Tomorrow night
through Friday afternoon, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level
seas. Wednesay and Thursday afternoon/evening there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level
northeast winds from Ventura south to Malibu tomorrow morning.
Wednesay and Thursday afternoon/evening there is a 30-40% chance
of NW SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel. Everywhere else, moderate to high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...04/845 PM.

High surf of 8 to 11 feet will develop by tomorrow morning for
the Central Coast beaches, due to long period NW swell (17-20
seconds). Surf may subside tomorrow afternoon briefly before the
next system of long period NW swell arrives tomorrow night. This
will effect the coastal waters through Friday.

Peak wave heights will be from tomorrow night through Thursday.
Expect 10 to 14 feet for the Central Coast, 4 to 7 feet with
local sets to 8 feet for Ventura County, and elevated surf for LA
County. Surf heights will be highest across west and northwest
facing beaches. Due to low astronomical tides, coastal flooding is
not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
Friday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Phillips
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sweet/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox