000
AGXX40 KNHC 201823
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front has cleared the basin early this afternoon
and is now from the Straits of Florida to far NW Caribbean. Gales
have ended across the Gulf and winds are gradually diminishing
from the NW. Peak seas across central and south portions were
running 3-5 ft higher than guidance, with central buoys peaking
at 18 ft overnight and morning altimeter showing maxes of 16 ft
on either side. Have tried to account for this in short term.
Surface ridging southward over the Gulf will shift E and allow
strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of
Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night. Another strong cold front could
enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning and introduce another
round of gales to the Mexican coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central
Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale
force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night through
Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere. A strong cold front is moving SE into the NW
Caribbean this morning, and will extend from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend
from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on Mon
night, and then start to weaken and drift N from Cuba westward
from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres building over
the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the
basin Tue through Thu resulting in strong winds across almost
all of the eastern and central Caribbean.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A strong cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will then
reach from 31N72W to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W tonight,
from 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday
morning, from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday
night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary on
Tuesday afternoon from 23N65W to near the Windward Passage.
Minimal gale force winds will prevail on either side of the
front N of 28N and W of 65W from today through Monday morning.
Peak seas will build to near 18 feet in NW swell behind the
front on Tues. Strong winds will develop between the front and
25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front.
These winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high
slowly shifts E over the western Atlc near 35N. The next cold
front should push E from Florida on Thu.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed into Wed night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Wed night.
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA
CANAL...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
Gale Warning today.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
Gale Warning tonight.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.